Choosing appropriate hyperparameters plays a crucial role in the success of neural networks as hyper-parameters directly control the behavior and performance of the training algorithms. To obtain efficient tuning, Bayesian optimization methods based on Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used. Despite numerous applications of Bayesian optimization in deep learning, the existing methodologies are developed based on a convenient but restrictive assumption that the tuning parameters are independent of each other. However, tuning parameters with conditional dependence are common in practice. In this paper, we focus on two types of them: branching and nested parameters. Nested parameters refer to those tuning parameters that exist only within a particular setting of another tuning parameter, and a parameter within which other parameters are nested is called a branching parameter. To capture the conditional dependence between branching and nested parameters, a unified Bayesian optimization framework is proposed. The sufficient conditions are rigorously derived to guarantee the validity of the kernel function, and the asymptotic convergence of the proposed optimization framework is proven under the continuum-armed-bandit setting. Based on the new GP model, which accounts for the dependent structure among input variables through a new kernel function, higher prediction accuracy and better optimization efficiency are observed in a series of synthetic simulations and real data applications of neural networks. Sensitivity analysis is also performed to provide insights into how changes in hyperparameter values affect prediction accuracy.

The analysis of data stored in multiple sites has become more popular, raising new concerns about the security of data storage and communication. Federated learning, which does not require centralizing data, is a common approach to preventing heavy data transportation, securing valued data, and protecting personal information protection. Therefore, determining how to aggregate the information obtained from the analysis of data in separate local sites has become an important statistical issue. The commonly used averaging methods may not be suitable due to data nonhomogeneity and incomparable results among individual sites, and applying them may result in the loss of information obtained from the individual analyses. Using a sequential method in federated learning with distributed computing can facilitate the integration and accelerate the analysis process. We develop a data-driven method for efficiently and effectively aggregating valued information by analyzing local data without encountering potential issues such as information security and heavy transportation due to data communication. In addition, the proposed method can preserve the properties of classical sequential adaptive design, such as data-driven sample size and estimation precision when applied to generalized linear models. We use numerical studies of simulated data and an application to COVID-19 data collected from 32 hospitals in Mexico, to illustrate the proposed method.

Attributes provide critical information about the alternatives that a decision-maker is considering. When their magnitudes are uncertain, the decision-maker may be unsure about which alternative is truly the best, so measuring the attributes may help the decision-maker make a better decision. This paper considers settings in which each measurement yields one sample of one attribute for one alternative. When given a fixed number of samples to collect, the decision-maker must determine which samples to obtain, make the measurements, update prior beliefs about the attribute magnitudes, and then select an alternative. This paper presents the sample allocation problem for multiple attribute selection decisions and proposes two sequential, lookahead procedures for the case in which discrete distributions are used to model the uncertain attribute magnitudes. The two procedures are similar but reflect different quality measures (and loss functions), which motivate different decision rules: (1) select the alternative with the greatest expected utility and (2) select the alternative that is most likely to be the truly best alternative. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the sequential procedures and hybrid procedures that first allocate some samples using a uniform allocation procedure and then use the sequential, lookahead procedure. The results indicate that the hybrid procedures are effective; allocating many (but not all) of the initial samples with the uniform allocation procedure not only reduces overall computational effort but also selects alternatives that have lower average opportunity cost and are more often truly best.

To analyse a very large data set containing lengthy variables, we adopt a sequential estimation idea and propose a parallel divide-and-conquer method. We conduct several conventional sequential estimation procedures separately, and properly integrate their results while maintaining the desired statistical properties. Additionally, using a criterion from the statistical experiment design, we adopt an adaptive sample selection, together with an adaptive shrinkage estimation method, to simultaneously accelerate the estimation procedure and identify the effective variables. We confirm the cogency of our methods through theoretical justifications and numerical results derived from synthesized data sets. We then apply the proposed method to three real data sets, including those pertaining to appliance energy use and particulate matter concentration.

Determining optimal well placements and controls are two important tasks in oil field development. These problems are computationally expensive, nonconvex, and contain multiple optima. The practical solution of these problems require efficient and robust algorithms. In this paper, the multilevel coordinate search (MCS) algorithm is applied for well placement and control optimization problems. MCS is a derivative-free algorithm that combines global and local search. Both synthetic and real oil fields are considered. The performance of MCS is compared to generalized pattern search (GPS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and covariance matrix adaptive evolution strategy (CMA-ES) algorithms. Results show that the MCS algorithm is strongly competitive, and outperforms for the joint optimization problem and with a limited computational budget. The effect of parameter settings for MCS are compared for the test examples. For the joint optimization problem we compare the performance of the simultaneous and sequential procedures and show the utility of the latter.

This paper studies bilateral multi-issue negotiation between self-interested autonomous agents. Now, there are a number of different procedures that can be used for this process; the three main ones being the package deal procedure in which all the issues are bundled and discussed together, the simultaneous procedure in which the issues are discussed simultaneously but independently of each other, and the sequential procedure in which the issues are discussed one after another. Since each of them yields a different outcome, a key problem is to decide which one to use in which circumstances. Specifically, we consider this question for a model in which the agents have time constraints (in the form of both deadlines and discount factors) and information uncertainty (in that the agents do not know the opponents utility function). For this model, we consider issues that are both independent and those that are interdependent and determine equilibria for each case for each procedure. In so doing, we show that the package deal is in fact the optimal procedure for each party. We then go on to show that, although the package deal may be computationally more complex than the other two procedures, it generates Pareto optimal outcomes (unlike the other two), it has similar earliest and latest possible times of agreement to the simultaneous procedure (which is better than the sequential procedure), and that it (like the other two procedures) generates a unique outcome only under certain conditions (which we define).

We consider scenarios where several agents must aggregate their preferences over a large set of candidates with a combinatorial structure. That is, each candidate is an element of the Cartesian product of the domains of some variables. We assume agents compactly express their preferences over the candidates via soft constraints. We consider a sequential procedure that chooses one candidate by asking the agents to vote on one variable at a time. While some properties of this procedure have been already studied, here we focus on independence of irrelevant alternatives, non-dictatorship, and strategy-proofness. Also, we perform an experimental study that shows that the proposed sequential procedure yields a considerable saving in time with respect to a non-sequential approach, while the winners satisfy the agents just as well, independently of the variable ordering and of the presence of coalitions of agents.

Now, there are a number of different procedures that can be used for this process; the three main ones being the package deal procedure in which all the issues are bundled and discussed together, the simultaneous procedure in which the issues are discussed simultaneously but independently of each other, and the sequential procedure in which the issues are discussed one after another. Since each of them yields a different outcome, a key problem is to decide which one to use in which circumstances. Specifically, we consider this question for a model in which the agents have time constraints (in the form of both deadlines and discount factors) and information uncertainty (in that the agents do not know the opponent's utility function). For this model, we consider issues that are both independent and those that are interdependent and determine equilibria for each case for each procedure. In so doing, we show that the package deal is in fact the optimal procedure for each party. We then go on to show that, although the package deal may be computationally more complex than the other two procedures, it generates Pareto optimal outcomes (unlike the other two), it has similar earliest and latest possible times of agreement to the simultaneous procedure (which is better than the sequential procedure), and that it (like the other two procedures) generates a unique outcome only under certain conditions (which we define).